Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…
Investors in Europe and the American West are already starting to think about the implications of the 2024 election, given that sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy keep the risk of recession elevated.
The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling…