Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term…
In this Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Fixed Income Strategy teams argue that as the lagged impact of higher interest rates hits the Canadian economy, what will initially appear as a potential hard landing…
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
Biden’s State of the Union address will mostly be blocked by a gridlocked Congress. The one point of agreement, big spending, spells trouble over the long run, even if a technical default is avoided this fall.
The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest…
President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds…
The growing threat of fiscal dominance; lower real interest rates; a weaker USD; increasing aggregate demand in Asia spurred by Chinese stimulus; safe-have demand driven by growing war risk all are bullish for gold. We are lifting…