Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2%  The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…

Special Report

Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries ​​​​ Tectonic geopolitical trends are taking shape in Emerging Markets (EMs) today that will leave an indelible imprint on the…

Executive Summary Bull Markets In Malaysian Stocks Are Fully Dependent On Profit Growth  The conditions for a major rally/outperformance in Malaysian equities are absent. Profits have been the primary driver of Malaysian…

Special Report

Executive Summary Brazil: Are Political & Macro Risks Priced-In?  Presidential elections are due in Brazil on October 2, 2022. While the left-of-center former President Lula da Silva will likely win, the road to his…

Executive Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) has engaged in a decisive pivot toward higher policy rates. Markets are pricing in a first interest-rate hike in July and three more increases thereafter in 2022. This is too much for…

Special Report

BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…

Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…

Highlights Our three strategic themes over the long run: (1) great power rivalry (2) hypo-globalization (3) populism and nationalism. The implications are inflationary over the long run. Nations that gear up for potential conflict and…

Highlights 1. How will the pandemic resolve? 2. Will services spending recover to its pre-pandemic trend? 3. Will we spend our excess savings? 4. How will central banks react to inflation? 5. Will cryptocurrencies continue to eat gold…

Highlights Indian stocks need more time to digest and consolidate the significant gains from earlier this year. However, the country’s medium and long-term growth outlook remains positive. Indian firms’ profit margins…