Highlights Gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows regarding US monetary policy; higher inflationary impulses from commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks; global economic policy uncertainty,…
Highlights Equity valuations are extremely stretched versus bonds, so there is little wiggle room for bonds to sell off before pulling down large tracts of the stock market. We estimate that bond yields can rise by no more than 30 bps…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service fiscal drag is probably overstated as governments are likely to increase deficit spending on the margin. US Congress is likely to pass Biden’s $550 billion bipartisan…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Highlights The fourth quarter will be volatile as China still poses a risk of overtightening policy and undermining the global recovery. US political risks are also elevated. A debt default is likely to be averted in the end. Fiscal…
China’s NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs sent a contradictory signal for September. The official manufacturing index slipped into contractionary territory after declining 0.5 points to 49.6. Consensus estimates anticipated a…
Japanese stocks have recently been one of the best performing global equity markets. MSCI Japan gained 2% in September, while the US and All Country World Indices each fell more than 4%. The outperformance reflects domestic…
The performance of USD/CNY can often be explained by relative rates. The widening of the China-US yield differential in the second half of last year coincided with a sharp appreciation in the CNY vis-à-vis the USD. However, this…
On Monday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill that would have extended federal funding to early December, provided emergency relief, and suspended the debt ceiling until December 2022. Democrats are now facing a tight deadline.…