BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service concludes that the looming “fiscal cliff” is probably overrated from an economic point of view even though it may contribute to a pullback in the stock market. The…
Highlights President Biden’s FY2022 budget largely confirms consensus views of the economy – which means that it overrates the government’s tax-collecting powers and underrates its fiscal profligacy. The US fiscal…
Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over…
Highlights ECB Tapering?: Investor fears that the ECB could follow the Bank of Canada and Bank of England and begin to taper its bond buying sooner than expected – perhaps as soon as next month’s policy meeting – are…
Highlights Global stocks are very vulnerable to a correction. But cyclically the Fed is committed to an inflation overshoot and the global economy is recovering. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse fell sharply, which leaves global…
Highlights Over the 2021-22 period, renewable capacity will account for 90% of global electricity-generation additions, per the IEA's latest forecast. This will follow the 45% surge (y/y) in renewable generation capacity added last…
Highlights Important leading indicators of Eurozone activity point to record growth in the coming quarters. Progress on the vaccination front, global pent-up demand, and easing fiscal policy will fuel the Euro Area recovery. Consensus…