Highlights Duration: Prospects for more pre-election fiscal stimulus are slim. But with the Democrats gaining ground in the polls, the bond market will stay focused on rising odds of a blue sweep election and greater fiscal stimulus in…
Highlights Both public opinion polls and betting markets suggest that Joe Biden will become President, with the Democrats gaining control of the Senate and retaining the House of Representatives. Such a “blue wave” would…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. We will also be hosting a webcast…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We recommend investors participate in the equity market rotation during the ongoing correction and position portfolios for next year’s bull market resumption by preferring unloved and undervalued…
We first highlighted that investors were turning a blind eye to (geo)political risks on June 8, and failure to pass a new fiscal package before the election will continue to weigh on the economy and on stocks risking a further 10% drawdown…
Highlights The global recovery has legs, but it will follow a stop-and-go pattern. Global fiscal policy will ultimately remain loose enough to create an appropriate counterweight to three major risks. Risk assets are still attractive…
Feature In last week’s US Bond Strategy report, we presented the results of a scenario analysis on consumer spending.1 The goal of that analysis was to assess how much additional federal government income support is required to…
Highlights Consumers are the beating heart of the US economy, … : By showering cash on the newly unemployed, and issuing checks to more than half of all taxpayers, the CARES Act arrested April’s free fall in consumption…
Dear Client, We will be working on our Fourth Quarter Strategy Outlook next week, which will be published on Tuesday, September 29th. We will also be hosting a webcast on Thursday, October 1st at 10:00 AM EDT (3:00 PM BST, 4:00 PM…
This report contains an error in the section related to consumer spending and fiscal policy. That error somewhat changes the conclusions from the report, and it particularly impacts Chart 3, Table 2 and Table 3. The attached note explains…