BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service believes that the ample public support for fiscal stimulus will force the hand of Senate Republicans. Investors have to grapple with uncertainty over whether fiscal policy…
Highlights Equities and other risk assets face near-term headwinds from the surge in Covid cases in the US Sun Belt and the looming fiscal cliff. We think these problems will be resolved, but the next few weeks could be rough sledding…
Highlights US consumer spending will stall this summer in response to the rising number of Covid cases. Worries about the looming fiscal cliff could also dampen sentiment. Markets are likely to trade nervously over the coming days, but…
Highlights In the short run, extreme policy uncertainty is problematic for risk assets. In the long run, gargantuan fiscal and monetary stimulus continues to support cyclical trades. Equity volatility always increases in the…
Despite the strong rally in stocks since mid-March and a looming second wave of the pandemic, we continue to recommend that investors overweight equities on a 12-month horizon. Needless to say, this view has raised some eyebrows. With…
Highlights Equities hit an air pocket last week after making another recovery high: Investors seemed to reassess the economy’s direction following official forecasts that ranged from sober to grim. “Whatever we can, and…
Highlights The relaxation of lockdown measures, along with mass protests over the past two weeks, have made a second wave of the pandemic more likely than not in many countries. Unlike during the first wave, most governments will not…
Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain…
Highlights If policymakers can neutralize default pressures arising from the lockdowns, the lasting impacts of this recession may not be so bad: As Jay Powell put it on 60 Minutes several weeks ago, policymakers just have to keep…