Feature We spent the past two weeks visiting and exchanging views with our clients in Asia. We presented our view that the ongoing stimulus measures are beginning to bear fruit in terms of stabilizing China’s economic activity, and…
Martin Barnes and I spent last week visiting clients in Hong Kong and Singapore in celebration of BCA’s 70th anniversary. Martin has been with BCA Research for 32 years and has been a keen observer of market trends for much longer…
The Fed has been describing the economic outlook for most of the year as an economy whose baseline outlook is favorable but faces some downside risks. While that outlook doesn’t immediately suggest a policy…
The “hard” economic data paints a much rosier picture that the “soft” survey data. Industrial production has already bounced off its lows and, unlike the ISM Manufacturing PMI, has not yet approached 2015/…
The late-1990s and the 2015/16 periods are appropriate comparables for today’s global growth slowdown. The current spate of weakness will stay confined within the manufacturing sector and will not spread into the broader…
With the global manufacturing & trade downturn now threatening to spill over into domestic demand in the major advanced economies, policymakers will need to stay dovish to stave off a recession. This will keep global bond…
Our European Central Bank (ECB) Monitor is now well below the zero line, signaling a strong need for easier monetary policy. The global manufacturing downturn has hit the export-dependent economies of the euro area hard, with…
U.S. monetary conditions will continue to support asset prices and worldwide economic activity for the coming 18 months or so. The Fed will ease policy further and is a long way from tightening. We are still on track for three…
The Indian government resorted to an unexpected large corporate income tax cut last week. The government reduced the effective corporate tax rate from 35% to around 25%. If domestic bond yields rise materially in response to…