The market is priced for roughly one more 25 bps rate cut before the end of the year. More specifically, the fed funds futures market is split 50/50 on whether that rate cut occurs at the October or December FOMC meeting. The…
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had his work cut out for him at last week’s FOMC press conference. First, he had to craft a coherent message about the Fed’s reaction function following a meeting where three voting members…
Highlights We are upgrading Indian stocks from underweight to neutral within an EM equity portfolio. Nevertheless, the outlook for the absolute performance of Indian share prices remains downbeat. Odds are that local bond yields will…
Dear Client, Owing to BCA’s 40th Annual Investment Conference at the Grand Hyatt in New York City next week, there will be no report on Wednesday, September 25. We will return to our regular publication schedule on Wednesday,…
Juxtaposed with news that China is once again buying U.S. soybeans, rumors that the U.S. could be willing to mollify its position are causing overbought and expensive bonds to rebound. However, we have been here before. Good news…
Highlights Our cyclical view is unchanged, … : Despite the evident risks from escalating trade tensions, soft global economic data, and widespread recession concerns, we expect the expansion and the bull markets in spread…
Highlights While a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence that plunges the global economy into recession cannot be excluded, it is far from our base case. Provided the trade war does not spiral out of control, it is highly likely that…
Highlights Four ghosts of 2016 are knocking at the door: Brexit, Trump, Brazil, Italy. President Trump and U.S. trade policy are keeping uncertainty high. Upgrade the odds of a no-deal Brexit to about 33%. Expect limited stimulus…