The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
Investors should not chase the rally in European defense names any further. Too much good news has been priced in too quickly.
The preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 57.9 from 64.7. The decrease came from both the assessment of current conditions and expectations, with the latter falling almost 10…
Despite our bearish predisposition towards stocks, we are open-minded to anything that could challenge our thesis. As such, in this report, we review five upside scenarios for equities.
The February US Producer Price Index came in below estimates, with the headline measure showing no monthly change and standing at 3.2% y/y. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) was also cooler than expected, coming…
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…
The fiscal stimulus announced at this year’s National People’s Congress is only slightly larger than last year’s. Notably, the details of the measures suggest that it will be challenging for fiscal stimulus to effectively…
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key…
February flash inflation for the Eurozone was slightly hotter than expected but nonetheless declined, with both headline and core inflation falling 0.1% to 2.4% y/y and 2.6%, respectively. Services inflation also declined to 3.7%…