In fact, looking through the minutes our U.S. Bond Strategy team could only locate the following relevant passage: “A few participants observed that the appropriate path for policy, insofar as it implied lower interest…

  In the Fed’s thinking, it must ensure that policy is accommodative enough to re-anchor inflation expectations. Otherwise, a Japanese-style scenario of permanent deflation could unfold. From the minutes: “Several…

  From a data perspective, it seems the Fed is mostly holding off to see how the outlook for the rest of the world evolves. The minutes of the March meeting, released last week, suggested that there may be more nuance to the Fed…

  While most FOMC participants do not expect growth weaknesses to last beyond the first quarter of 2019, a majority do not anticipate interest rates to rise in 2019. The key to this seeming paradox lies in the participants’…

  First, rebounding global growth is normally associated with a weakening dollar. This time will not be different, especially as U.S. equity valuations relative to global stocks suggest that investors are particularly pessimistic…

  Our Global Fixed Income Strategy team’s European Central Bank (ECB) Monitor is slightly below the zero line, signaling no real need for any change to euro area monetary policy. The sharp slowing of economic growth last year…

  Our Global Fixed Income Strategy team’s Fed Monitor has drifted lower over the past several months and now sits just above the zero line. This indicates that there is no pressure to hike interest rates, which is consistent…

  Governor Lowe refrained from cutting rates this month, but he acknowledged that the household sector continues to be hampered by dwindling real estate wealth and slowing income growth. Furthermore, he also highlighted that global…

  At its best, an inverted yield curve is a signal from the bond market that the Fed has tightened monetary policy too much, heralding future rate cuts and a sharp slowdown. Anything affecting yields at the long end, however, has…

  An inverted yield curve has called eight of the seven recessions that have occurred over the last 50 years, making it a dependable leading indicator. Year-over-year contraction in the Conference Board’s Leading Economic…