The twenty year life of the euro captures multiple manias and crises, some centered in Europe, some in the U.S. Through these twenty years, the euro area versus U.S. long bond yield spread has averaged -50 bps. Over this same…
The delayed December retail sales release was lousy, and the uninspiring advance January figure led the Atlanta Fed to knock nearly 40 basis points off of its estimate of consumption’s contribution to first-quarter GDP, but…
Our U.S. Investment Strategy team’s real-time view of the Fed’s turn to patience in early January was that it was a logical response to the sharp, sudden tightening of financial conditions imposed by the fourth-…
Canadian government bonds have been clawing back much of the relative underperformance that occurred in 2017 and 2018 when the Bank of Canada (BoC) was delivering multiple rate hikes. The spread between the yields on the…
Strategies such as price-level targeting would represent a significant change from managing the 2% annual inflation target on a non-cumulative basis. The Fed has executed its price-stability mandate by aiming for 2% annual…
Highlights So What? The late-cycle rally still faces non-trivial political hurdles. Why? U.S.-China trade talks, the U.S. threat of tariffs on auto imports, and Brexit continue to pose risks. A shocking revelation from the…
At the end of 2019, Canadian growth ground to a halt. Not only are exports hurt by the recent decline in global growth, but domestic economic activity is also reeling, as capex remains soft, households are reluctant to spend, and…