Highlights Global manufacturing inventories are low but this does not guarantee higher share prices for global cyclical stocks. If an increase in inventories is accompanied by strengthening final demand, it will be very bullish for the…
Dear Client, In addition to our regular Weekly Report, we sent you a Special Report on Wednesday prepared by my colleague Marko Papic, BCA's chief geopolitical strategist, assessing the election landscape in Europe this year. Best…
Highlights Chinese fiscal stimulus, both direct fiscal spending and infrastructure investment, has slowed significantly since late last year. This raises a red flag on the sustainability of the cyclical upturn. The Chinese economy…
Highlights U.S. growth will remain firm over the next 12 months, but then will begin to slow from its above-trend pace as the economy runs out of spare capacity. Fiscal stimulus, by the time it is enacted, may simply end up pushing up…
Table 1Recommended Allocation The Reflation Trade Continues It is wrong to think that the recent rally in risk assets is mainly due to the election of President Donald Trump. Yes, since November 8, U.S. equities have risen by 7%…
Highlights Undue pessimism about global growth is giving way to unbridled optimism. Chinese growth has accelerated. However, there is a risk that the economy hits a speed bump later in 2017, as fiscal policy becomes less accommodative…
Highlights The uptrend in consumer confidence has the potential to be lasting, and therefore lead to an acceleration in real consumption over the next several quarters. In contrast, the rise in business optimism is thus far built on…
Highlights China's monetary and fiscal policy in 2017 will likely remain accommodative, in order to achieve the goal of an average 6.5% GDP growth over the next five years. China's policies related to its property market will…