Highlights The near-term RMB outlook is entirely dictated by the movement of the dollar. We expect the CNY/USD to weaken alongside broad dollar strength, which could rekindle financial market volatility and cap the upside in Chinese…
Highlights Recent U.S. economic data have surprised to the upside, raising the odds of a December rate hike. U.S. GDP growth is likely to accelerate further in 2017 on the back of stronger business capex, a turn in the inventory cycle…
The fiscal spending impulse in China is still positive but receding. The nation's productivity and potential GDP growth are bound to decline due to a rising role of government in capital and resource allocation. Hence, cyclical…
The lack of inflation makes a Fed rate hike before December unlikely. In the interim, the continued flow of liquidity could sustain the high-risk rally.
Government bond markets have likely overestimated the degree of policy dovishness that is likely to be delivered by the major central banks in the next few months.
The contours of a deal to solve Italy's banking problems are starting to emerge. This is good news for European risk assets. Nevertheless, reviving Italian growth will require even more ECB easing. The appetite for radical measures…
The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.