The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…

Special Report

The Turkish central bank has almost exhausted its foreign exchange reserve. It has been printing money to keep interest rates lower, and sustain the credit boom in the economy. Such policies are unsustainable and the currency will…

The window for "stealth" RMB depreciation is likely closed for now. The Chinese authorities are stepping up efforts to boost infrastructure construction with several major announcements last month. Capital spending on transportation…

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…

China has fallen into the same "fiscal trap" that ensnarled Japan in the 1990s. Unprofitable investment projects undertaken by SOEs are a necessary evil. The underlying problem is not overinvestment, but an economy that is demand-…

Special Report

For the foreseeable future, Saudi Arabia will remain a price-taker, and not a price-maker in the oil markets; While the economy will face a growth recession, the kingdom has sufficient resources to weather the pain; Policymakers are…

The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…

Special Report

Colombia's structural growth outlook is superior to many other developing economies. In the near-term, however, Colombia's economy is set to weaken materially. Upgrade Colombian equities and sovereign credit to neutral versus EM…

Policy easing works with a time lag, and the previous easing measures should continue to feed through to business activity. The recent decline in the trade-weighted RMB should lead to continued improvement in the industrial sector's…

Special Report

Brazil is not a buy. Impeachment alone is not a solution to Brazil's problems. Recent political changes will prove insufficient to alter the public debt dynamics in Brazil. Investors should focus on the bigger picture. Without severe…