EM/China growth improvements and the associated rally will falter on their own without tightening by policymakers. The short duration of these mini-cycles and a lack of observable catalysts make it impossible to precisely time…

A stronger yen is hampering efforts to revive the Japanese economy and the BoJ's failed NIRP experiment leaves open the option of direct currency intervention. Probability is also high that the April 2017 sales tax hike will be…

Special Report

If China's credit growth decelerates below 9.4% by the end of 2016 from the current rate of 11.7%, the negative credit impulse will overwhelm any plausible fiscal spending impulse. This is quite a plausible scenario given the…

The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.

Near-term, global yields will remain depressed, but the structural forces suppressing yields should abate and even reverse in the long-run. Slower potential GDP growth - and lower commodity prices - will eventually shift from…

Beyond the ongoing short-term rebound, EM currencies have more downside, and will depreciate by more than is implied by their forward rates on a 6-9 month horizon. This makes us reluctant to recommend buying local currency bonds to…