The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.

Special Report

This Special Report outlines the Fed’s balance sheet strategy and the rationale behind it. We also provide updated projections for the major asset and liability line items on the Fed’s balance sheet.

The greater risk to the world economy in 2026-27 is not that a recession triggers a market crash, but that a market crash triggers a recession. This is because a market crash will destroy the wealth that is funding the crucial…

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2025.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…

MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…

Special Report

Asset allocators must pay attention not only to the magnitude of an asset’s expected returns but also to its shape, a concept technically known as skew. Adding skew into our analysis moves our equity allocation up to neutral while…

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.