The June US CPI release showed inflationary pressures cooled last month. The headline index moderated from 4.0% y/y to 3.0% y/y – slightly below expectations of 3.1% y/y. Similarly, core CPI growth eased from 5.3% y/y to 4.…
An outlook for inflation and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook is that inflation will be sufficiently weak for the Fed to go on an extended pause after one more 25 basis point rate hike this month. This will cause both…
China’s credit expansion surprised to the upside in June. Aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.22 trillion – above expectations of CNY 3.10 trillion and exceeding CNY 1.56 trillion in the prior month. Similarly,…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2023.
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that…
A perspective on the recent increase in US bond yields and this morning’s employment report.
According to our Counterpoint strategy service, latest nowcasts indicate that world growth has likely slowed to sub-2 percent, thereby passing the threshold of a typical world recession as experienced in the early 1970s, early…
On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk…
Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and…