Investors should expect high volatility and a selloff in US stocks over the short run due to the higher-than-usual risk of technical default. Investors should seek shelter in defensive sectors and large cap stocks. Long-dated…
In this US Bond Strategy Insight we discuss the outlook for bank bonds.
For long-term investors, high-yield bonds are an attractive asset class. They behave like low-volatility equities: In the US, they have a 70-80% correlation with equities, but with a beta of only around one-third. The Sharpe…
The DXY index has been rebounding sharply over the past two weeks. Its 2.3% gain over this period has pushed it to a two-month high. A confluence of factors is supporting the dollar’s performance. First, multiple…
Recent Canadian data releases have raised concerns that the Bank of Canada may abandon the conditional pause it first telegraphed following its last rate increase on January 25 in favor of more policy tightening. Headline CPI…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a large set of variables points to some additional correction in European stocks over the coming months. The collapse in the Euro Area M1 is consistent…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, on a timeframe of two years, investors should shock-proof their portfolios by holding some combination of cheap insurance assets. All shocks end up with both deflationary…
April’s CPI report was soft enough to justify a Fed pause in June. However, the overall economic data still don’t justify the magnitude of rate cuts priced into the yield curve.
There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that…
This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important…