High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

Is the European banking system hiding nasty surprises? How will the recent stress affect European growth and the ECB’s policy outlook?

We think the banking turmoil set off by Silicon Valley Bank’s failure will prove to be less than it’s been cracked up to be and that it will not derail the near-term equity we expect.

Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower…

This US Bond Strategy Insight takes an in-depth look at core non-housing services inflation.

Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…

Special Report

In this Special Report, we present our updated Central Bank Monitors for the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. We have improved the methodology used to calculate the monitors to make them more dynamic to structural…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…