Core CPI rose sequentially in January compared to December, but we don’t see this as the beginning of a new trend. Disinflation is very much still in the cards for the US economy between now and the end of the year.
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
The backdrop for corporate bonds is turning more risky after the spread tightening seen over the past few months in the US and Europe. A tour of our favorite corporate spread valuation metrics on both sides of the Atlantic suggests a…
The interest spread between 2-year and 10-year Tresaurys widened on Monday ahead of the January CPI release, nearing last Thursday’s multi-decade extreme. This latest bout of curve flattening follows the February 3 US jobs…
We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet and why QT is likely to continue for at least another year.
Our Central Bank Monitors support the recent shift in tone from central bankers in Europe. Find out what it means for European fixed-income portfolio allocation.
Ironically, increased confidence that the economy can withstand higher bond yields may be necessary to lift yields to a level that is actually detrimental to growth. Thus, until more investors are convinced that a recession will be…
Junk bonds have been on fire during the past few months. Since the end of June, the sector has delivered a total return of 7.9% and has bested duration-matched US Treasuries by a whopping 9.5%. Our US bond strategists don…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service concludes that for investors who maximize risk-adjusted returns, US Treasurys were always a good risk diversifier to US equities in nominal terms, but the same could not be…
Biden’s State of the Union address will mostly be blocked by a gridlocked Congress. The one point of agreement, big spending, spells trouble over the long run, even if a technical default is avoided this fall.