The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest…

Special Report

This is the first of two Special Reports aiming to answer client questions in response to the recent dramatic changes in stock-bond correlations. In this report we focus on what role US Treasurys have played since 1872, how the…

The Fed’s actions at its meeting last Wednesday were no surprise – downshifting to 25 basis points while guiding for more hikes was widely expected – but Chair Powell’s newly conciliatory tone at the press conference helped to spark…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.

Financial markets were taken on a wild ride between Wednesday and Friday of this week, with hugely important monetary policy meetings in the US, euro area and UK along with a rash of economic data. Despite all the news, noise and…

The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will…

This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Special Report

The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, with far-reaching consequences for US stock market behaviour, sector allocation, and global asset allocation.