The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus:…
The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service’s Combined Mechanical Valuation Indicator (CMVI) framework favors European defensive sectors that are cheap within the defensive equity universe. The CMVI…
The Barclays US Aggregate TR index lost 13.6% last year as the Fed’s tightening cycle’s impact on yields trumped the effect of a deteriorating economy. Although the weakness was broad-based, relatively safer…
Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.
How to play China's reopening? What are the dichotomies in the performance of China's plays in financial markets? Why has the Chinese central bank tightened liquidity since October and what has been the impact on local rates and the…
Slowing growth would be bad for equities, but so would stronger growth since it would mean more rate hikes.
In Section I, we note that the global growth outlook has modestly deteriorated over the past month, despite an improving 12-month outlook for Chinese domestic demand in response to the imminent end of the nation’s “dynamic zero-COVID…