In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.
Investors were heartened by the November CPI report, but the Fed said not so fast. Although it snuffed out the latest mini-rally, ongoing disinflation will set the stage for another one early next year.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, French OATs will outperform US-T-bonds and JPY/EUR will rally. The US and China have structural imbalances that need correcting. In the case of the US, it is a…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends that investors maintain a neutral allocation to global inflation-linked bonds versus nominals. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) played a useful role in bond…
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…