BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recently shifted to a below-benchmark overall global duration stance. The path for monetary policy rates outside the US shows a similar profile as in the US, with a…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service expects one more move higher in US Treasury yields before the end of the cyclical bear market. The Fed will continue to lift rates for the next few months, before pausing in Q1 or…
Executive Summary Upward Repricing Of Bond Yields Continues In this report, we discuss our move last week to shift to a below-benchmark overall global duration stance in more detail. Our strongest conviction view on…
As expected, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50bps to 2.25% on Thursday. Three of the nine MPC members preferred a more aggressive 75bp hike, while one member favored a more modest 25bp increase. The BoE noted that…
Executive Summary The Chinese Economy Is Facing Deflationary Pressures China’s economy is facing a deflationary threat. Core consumer price inflation is below 1%, and producer (ex-factory) price inflation has…
Executive Summary There’s Value In TIPS A survey of economic and financial market indicators suggests that we are not yet close to the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle. This argues for a continued flattening of the…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service looks back at seven recent Fed tightening cycles and summarizes evidence concerning how the US Treasury curve behaves relative to the length and magnitude of the tightening cycle.…
Executive Summary This report looks back at seven recent Fed tightening cycles and summarizes evidence concerning how the US Treasury curve behaves relative to the length and magnitude of the tightening cycle. We document a few…
Highlights Chart 1A Hot Labor Market The balance of data that’s come out during the past month points to a labor market that is not cooling very quickly. In fact, it is cooling much more slowly than we anticipated.…