Next week, on September 7-8, is the BCA New York Conference, the first in-person version since 2019. I look forward to seeing many of you there, and if you haven’t already booked your place, you still can! (a virtual version is also…
Executive Summary Low-Yielding Countries Facing High USD Hedging Costs The US dollar will remain strong alongside continued Fed rate hikes. Interest rate differentials will remain positive for the greenback, alongside other…
Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned…
Executive Summary US Companies Will Attempt To Raise Selling Prices To Protect Their Profit Margins China needs lower interest rates and a weaker currency to battle deflationary pressures. In the US, the main problem is…
Executive Summary Upgrade Euro Area ILBs To Overweight Inflation breakevens have stabilized in the US, where gasoline prices have fallen, but have reaccelerated in the UK and euro area, where natural gas prices have…
As of Thursday’s close, the 2-year/10-year US Treasury curve is inverted, with the 10-year yield trading -35bps below the 2-year yield. In Europe, there is no inversion, with the 10-year German yield trading 37bps…
Despite all the worries, the most reliable yield curve slope measure, the 3-month/10-year segment, is not yet sending a recessionary signal. At 14bps, it is very flat, but recessions only follow an actual inversion, not a mere…