Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front…
Executive Summary If a loss of wealth persists for a year or more, it hurts the economy. The recent $40 trillion slump in global financial wealth is larger than that suffered in the pandemic of 2020, the global financial crisis of…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the peak fed funds rate that is currently priced in the market for 2023 is too low, and the funds rate will also likely peak later than what is priced in the curve.…
Executive Summary Peak Fed Funds? The bond market is priced for a fed funds rate that will peak in February 2023 at 3.44% before trending down. We survey several interest rate cycle indicators and conclude that the market…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
US junk bond spreads have been narrowing for the past two weeks, falling back below the 2018 peak. Interestingly, this trend is occurring despite the Fed’s aggressively hawkish stance and ongoing recession fears weighing on…
Executive Summary China: Can The Economy Recover Without Housing Revival The rebound in China’s business activity in June reflects the release of pent-up demand from the economic reopening after lockdowns in April and…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation has an easy path back to 4%, but a move to 2% will require a higher unemployment rate. At 5.9%, core CPI inflation is running well above the Fed’s 2%…