Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish?  The dominant market narrative has clearly shifted in the last few days. The primary concern among investors used to be that the Fed had fallen behind the curve on inflation. Now…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.

Highlights We now recommend that investors maintain a neutral stance towards stocks versus bonds in a global multi-asset portfolio. We also recommend that investors increase their allocation to government bonds within a global fixed…

Executive Summary An Optimal Control Policy  We could see some modest near-term downside in Treasury yields as inflation rolls over during the next few months, but we caution against turning overly bullish on bonds even if…

Executive Summary Biden Can Take Risks With Russia  President Biden will make a last-ditch effort to mitigate Democratic losses in the midterm elections and the effect will be still-high policy uncertainty and erratic US…

Executive Summary Calculating Trend Inflation  Investors should anticipate 50 basis point rate hikes at each FOMC meeting, eventually transitioning to 25 bps per meeting once inflation shows clear and convincing evidence of…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations  I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…

Executive Summary Was FAANGM A Bubble?  US inflation has become broad-based, and the labor market is very tight. Wages are a lagging variable, and they will be rising rapidly in the coming months, even as the economy slows…

Executive Summary   Economic growth is now a casualty, and not a driver, of monetary policy choices. Inflation is dictating where central banks are taking interest rates. Our baseline view remains that core US inflation will…