Highlights The economic and financial market developments that have occurred over the past month are consistent with several of the risks that we identified in our recent reports. We warned in our April report that the outlook for…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investors should stay overweight municipal bonds in US fixed income portfolios. The team maintains its cautious stance on corporate bonds for the time being, but are…
Although Ukranian US dollar sovereign bonds have rebounded since the beginning of the war, their risk-reward tradeoff is not yet attractive. First, the war is likely to be prolonged. US and NATO military and economic…
Executive Summary First IG, Then HY Corporate bonds are following the 2018 roadmap. Investment grade underperformed Treasuries as interest rate expectations rose from low levels, then junk joined the selloff once rate…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…
Next Thursday May 26, we will hold the BCA Debate – High Inflation: Here To Stay,Or Soon In The Rear-View Mirror? – a Webcast in which I will debate my colleague, Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist, Bob Ryan on the…
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above the key psychological 3% level earlier this month. It last reached this level back in 2018, towards the end of the prior tightening cycle. A key difference, this time around is that…
Executive Summary Global inflation will peak sometime in the next few months, a process that has likely already begun in the US. This will give policymakers some breathing room to turn less hawkish, a more credible stance given…