Executive Summary Stocks Not Linked To Presidential Approval President Kennedy’s performance in 1962 would be ideal for the Biden administration in this year’s midterm elections – but today the…
Executive Summary A True Bond Bear Market, USD-Hedged Or Unhedged The US dollar has appreciated in 2022, most notably against the euro and Japanese yen. The rally has been more muted against the currencies of major US…
Highlights Chart 1Past Peak Inflation The Fed is all set to deliver a 50 basis point rate hike when it meets this week and with inflation still well above target Chair Powell will be keen to re-affirm the Fed’s…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Second Fastest Hiking Cycle Ever? Can the Fed achieve a soft landing, bringing inflation back to its 2% target without causing growth to…
Highlights Several factors point to both an improvement and a deterioration in economic and financial market conditions, underscoring that the 6- to 12-month investment outlook is unavoidably uncertain. On the one hand, the US will…
Executive Summary Using the real yield on inflation protected bonds as a gauge of the long-term real interest rate is possibly the biggest mistake in finance. The ultra-low real yield on inflation protected bonds captures nothing more…
Executive Summary Summarizing Our Main Investment Themes In One Chart Our current strategic recommendations are centered around four key themes: global inflation will slow over the rest of 2022, Europe remains too weak to…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, Agency MBS returns will improve going forward, but the sector is still not sufficiently attractive to increase exposure. Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) have…
The outperformance of cyclical sectors relative to their defensive peers has historically coincided with periods of rising 10-year Treasury yields. Increasing government bond yields tend to signal an improving growth landscape…