Our Counterpoint strategists overweigh Europe versus the US across both equities and bonds, and are structurally long bitcoin. Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US, prompting a sharp shift in…
This year’s corporate bond sell off has hit high-yield more than investment grade, and high-yield spreads have turned relatively more attractive as a result.
Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.
US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.
The European economies are facing a major deflationary shock. We recommend that investors stay long a basket of Central European (CE3) domestic bonds. They should also upgrade CE3 bonds and stocks in their respective EM portfolios.
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk…
The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…
Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and…
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.