Executive Summary A housing slowdown has begun and it will proceed in three stages. First, rising mortgage rates will lead to slowing demand. Second, weak demand will push inventories higher and cause home prices to decelerate.…
Executive Summary In this first of a regular series of ‘no holds barred’ conversations with a concerned client we tackle the hot topic of inflation. Month-on-month US core inflation has already peaked, 12-month US core…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends a neutral stance on overall global bond portfolio duration. The sharp rise in global government bond yields seen so far in 2022 has been driven by both…
Executive Summary A Good Time For A Pause In The Bond Bear Market The global government bond selloff looks stretched from a technical perspective, and a consolidation phase is likely over the next few months as global…
Executive Summary Above Fair Value March’s CPI report will mark peak inflation for 2022. We recommend several ideas to profit from peak inflation. First, investors should keep portfolio duration close to benchmark.…
Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…
Executive Summary Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term China’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell in the first three months of 2022. The reduction was the largest quarterly fall…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investment grade corporate bonds are quite expensive. Starting with a simple examination of the average investment grade index OAS, the team observes that the spread…