According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields can rise above 2% without causing a public finance crisis in Italy. How high can yields rise in the Eurozone before Italy experiences…
Executive Summary From Net Borrower To Net Lenders Yields are rising across Europe. Peripheral spreads are unlikely to experience the same violent widening as last decade. Europe now has a buyer of last resort. Italy and…
Executive Summary To understand the economy and the market we must think of them as non-linear systems which experience sudden phase-shifts. The pandemic introduced phase-shifts in our lives, which led to phase-shifts in our goods…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, current spread levels offer a good opportunity to reduce corporate bond exposure. Corporate spreads have rallied to within striking distance of their pre-COVID lows…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists’ Global Duration Indicator is comprised of three elements: BCA Research’s Global Leading Economic Indicator, the Global Leading Economic Indicator’s diffusion index, and…
Highlights Chart 1Reduce Credit Exposure Corporate bond spreads staged a nice rally during the past month. The average index spread for investment grade corporates is only 22 bps above its pre-COVID low and 33 bps above last…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom index by a robust +48bps in Q1/2022 – an impressive performance given the significant uncertainties stemming from the Ukraine war, surging commodity…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth It is still possible that equities can outperform bonds over the next 12 months, but the…