According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, stocks have consistently performed better while the yield curve is flattening than they have when it is steepening. The Treasury slope’s reputation as an…
Executive Summary Refreshing Our Tactical Trade List Our current list of tactical trade recommendations centers around two broad themes that predate the Ukraine conflict – rising global inflation expectations and…
Following the sharp increase in 10-year Treasury yields – up 113 bps since early December – the signal from several of our bond market indicators is that the selloff in US Treasurys is losing steam. In our European…
On Monday, the gap between the five- and 30-year yield on US government bond dipped into negative territory for the first time since 2006, adding to fears that the US economy is heading towards a recession. Some other parts of…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…
Despite the potential drag on economic growth from soaring commodity prices, US economic data has generally been strong recently. Flash PMIs for March, regional Fed surveys, and jobless claims for March all generated positive…
Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive…
US Treasury yields have been climbing higher and continue to register new pandemic highs. Given that stocks are a claim on future corporate cash flows, higher interest rates reduce the present value of those claims and therefore…
Executive Summary Tracking Inflation In 2022 Our base case view is that inflation will moderate in the coming months, allowing the Fed to deliver a steady pace of tightening (25 bps per meeting). A 50 bps rate hike is…