According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, Treasury returns during rate hike cycles are generally low, though not always negative. The team analyzed Treasury returns during the prior four rate hike cycles. The…
Highlights Duration: A look at past rate hike cycles shows that Treasury returns are generally low, though not always negative. For the current cycle, we continue to recommend a below-benchmark portfolio duration stance as we don…
Dear Client, Next week there will be no regular strategy report. Instead, we will hold our quarterly webcast which will discuss the outlook for the European economy and assets in 2022. I look forward to this interaction. Best…
Highlights This week we highlight key charts for US Political Strategy themes and views in the New Year. For H1 2022, we maintain a pro-cyclical, risk-on approach. We favor industrials, energy, infrastructure, and cyclicals. Foreign…
Highlights 2022 Key Views & Allocations: Translating our 2022 global fixed income Key Views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio results in the following conclusions to begin the year. Target a moderate…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends buying the 2-year bullet versus a duration-matched cash/10 barbell. The 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield is rising but it is still only at the low-end of survey…
Highlights Chart 1Stick With Steepeners The new year promises to be one of Fed tightening. The minutes from the December FOMC meeting reinforced the notion that rate hikes will begin as early as March and the market is now…
The hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance coupled with the omicron-driven rise in COVID-19 infection rates caused US investment grade and high-yield spreads to widen towards the end of 2021. This dynamic coincided with a…
Our US Investment strategists recently highlighted that although the Fed is beginning to tighten monetary policy, the level – rather than the direction – of the fed funds rate has a greater impact on the performance…