Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from…
The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.
We maintain a defensive asset allocation, as the hit to confidence will linger even if tariff tensions ease. The past few days have seen sharp volatility, with trade headlines swinging markets between despair and euphoria. At the…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists continue to recommend long duration exposure, curve steepeners, and an underweight in corporate bonds relative to government bonds, as global recession risks rise. The trade war has increased the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.
Equities’ post-Liberation Day selloff was historic, but cross-asset signals make it an anomaly. The post-Liberation Day S&P 500’s three-day, 10%+ drawdown joined a list of major episodes that includes the March 2020 COVID-19…
The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up…
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European…
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.