Highlights European economic activity will suffer in Q1 from both the Omicron wave and elevated natural gas prices. The Omicron wave will fade quickly and its impact on growth will be short lived. The biggest economic risk related to…
The message from the December FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday is that the US Federal Reserve is preparing to accelerate the withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, the minutes reveal that most…
We have entered a new phase of the cycle, with central banks in most developed markets turning more hawkish (the Bank of England surprisingly hiking in December, and the Fed signaling three rate hikes for 2022). How much does…
Highlights Global growth will remain above-trend in 2022, although with more divergence between regions than at any time during the pandemic (US strong, Europe steady, China slowing). Global inflation will transition from being driven…
Dear Client, Thank you for your continued readership and support this year. This is the last European Investment Strategy report for 2021. In this piece, we review ten charts covering important aspects of the European economy and…
Highlights The risk to European stocks from higher yields is overstated for 2022. Not only do equities possess a valuation cushion compared to bonds, but also the stock returns/bond yields correlation remains positive. This positive…
Highlights The helicopter drops are over, … : The economic impact payments and supplemental unemployment insurance benefits may have stopped, but their full impact has yet to be felt. … but fiscal and monetary…
Highlights 1. How will the pandemic resolve? 2. Will services spending recover to its pre-pandemic trend? 3. Will we spend our excess savings? 4. How will central banks react to inflation? 5. Will cryptocurrencies continue to eat gold…