Highlights So far, both the demand and supply side of the Philippine economy have been rather weak; yet there are signs that growth is set to revive. Fiscal expenditures have bottomed. Bank lending is also reviving. Acceleration in…
Highlights There is a high risk of a global demand shortfall in 2022. This is because consumer demand for services will remain well below its pre-pandemic trend… …while the recent booming demand for goods is crashing…
US TIPS breakeven inflation rates surged on Wednesday following the hotter than expected CPI release. The 1-year breakeven inflation rate ended the day up 20 bps. Similarly, the 5-year breakeven inflation rate surged 11 bps to a…
Highlights Fed/BoE: Both the Fed and the Bank of England found ways to talk down 2022 rate hike expectations discounted in US and UK bond markets. This is only a temporary reprieve, however, as the near-term uncertainties over the…
To determine how to position within the Treasury market, BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service translates its views on the timing of Fed liftoff into fair value estimates for different segments of the Treasury curve.…
Revelations that Lael Brainard was interviewed last week for the position of Fed chair sparked speculation that monetary policy will shift in a more dovish direction once Jerome Powell’s term expires in February. Inflation…
Highlights Fed: Chair Powell’s remarks after the November FOMC meeting suggest that the Fed will not panic and move quickly toward tightening in the face of high inflation. Rather, the Fed will stay the course and will only lift…
Global sovereign bond markets face two opposing forces. On the one hand, expectations that central banks will be forced to dial up hawkish responses to inflationary pressures is a source of upside to bond yields. On the other…
Highlights Supply-side pressures should abate over the coming months as semiconductor availability improves, transportation bottlenecks ease, energy prices recede, and more workers enter the labor force. The respite from inflation…
The Bank of England kept policy unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 6-3 to maintain UK bond purchases and a majority of 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate at 0.1%. Governor Bailey…