In lieu of next week’s report, I will be presenting the quarterly Counterpoint webcast titled ‘Where Is The Groupthink Wrong? (Part 2)’. I do hope you can join. Highlights If a continued surge in the oil price…
Highlights Bank of Canada: Rising inflation, high capacity utilization, and monetary policy constraints will force the Bank of Canada to taper further and move up the timing of its first rate hike to H1/2022. Stay underweight Canadian…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service still views December 2022 as the most likely liftoff date. The team is monitoring five factors to see if their forecast needs to be revised. 1. The Unemployment Rate: The Fed…
Highlights Treasuries: Bond investors should maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and continue to short the 5-year note versus a duration-matched 2/10 barbell. For those investors who want to take an outright long position in US…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service argues that the next step for inflation is likely down, even though the longer-term trend is to the upside. The path to structurally higher inflation is likely to be a…
European high-yield corporate bond spreads have been widening over the past four weeks, likely because of inflation fears spurred by rising energy prices and input prices. Our 12-month breakeven spread metric, which measures…
Highlights Energy Prices & Bond Yields: Surging energy prices are lifting inflation expectations in the US and Europe, while at the same time dampening consumer confidence amid diminished perceptions of real purchasing power. These…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that investors should position for higher short-maturity real yields. The market’s near-term rate expectations have risen considerably during the past few weeks. While…
Highlights Duration: We recommend that investors run below-benchmark portfolio duration in US bond portfolios on the expectation that the Treasury curve will bear-flatten between now and Fed liftoff in December 2022. Nominal Treasury…
Dear Client, There will be no weekly report next week. Instead, we will host our quarterly webcast on Tuesday, October 26 for the US and EMEA regions and Wednesday, October 27 for the Asia Pacific region. We will resume our regular…