Highlights Equity valuations are extremely stretched versus bonds, so there is little wiggle room for bonds to sell off before pulling down large tracts of the stock market. We estimate that bond yields can rise by no more than 30 bps…
Highlights Q3/2021 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed the custom benchmark index by +8bps during the third quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the Treasury curve will bear-flatten as markets price in the expectation that the Fed will launch a new rate hike cycle in December 2022. Bond yields rose notably in…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields Still Track The "Re-Opening" Trade Bond yields rose notably in September, with the bulk of the move coming in the days after the Fed teased an upcoming tapering of its…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The global economy will continue to grow at an above-trend rate over the next 12 months and central banks will remove accommodation only slowly.But the second year of a bull market is often…
Highlights The global fight against the Delta variant of COVID-19 continued to show progress in the month of September, but not without cost. Growth in services activity slowed meaningfully, which has likely delayed the return to…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends investors underweight government bonds where markets are discounting a path for future policy rates over the next two years that is too flat: the US, UK, Canada…
The decline in US government bond yields between April and August was largely put down to oversold conditions in the Treasury market and concerns amid signs that economic growth is moderating in the US. The stock market…
The sharp selloff in Treasurys over the past week has ignited a debate among BCA Research strategists about whether it is attributed to rising fears about inflation (see Country Focus) or is part of the reopening trade. The…