Highlights Evergrande has not only crossed regulatory gridlines but also regulators’ bottom lines; the government will use the example of Evergrande to impose discipline on real estate developers. The policy response will likely…
Highlights Monetary Policy: Last week’s numerous central bank meetings across the world confirmed that the overall direction for global monetary policy is shifting in a more hawkish direction. The main reason: growing fears that…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy services recommends investors enter 2/10 steepeners on the inflation compensation curve and/or 2/10 flatteners on the real (TIPS) curve. The increase in the 10-year nominal yield since last…
Highlights Monetary Policy: It’s all but certain that tapering will begin next month and conclude by the middle of next year, but the FOMC is currently split right down the middle on whether it will be appropriate to lift rates…
The German IFO’s Business Climate Index softened for the third consecutive month in September, falling to 98.8 from 99.6. The weakness was led by the Current Assessment number which lost 1-point versus expectations of a minor…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service expects the Fed’s tapering of asset purchases to be a non-event for the US dollar. While the Fed is still considering tapering asset purchases (and would very likely do so…
Highlights Global Inflation: Most central banks, led by the Fed, have stuck to the narrative that surging inflation is a temporary phenomenon that will not require an aggressive monetary policy response. However, global supply chain…
The Bank of England kept policy unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, it revised down its Q3 growth outlook to 2.1% from last month’s 2.9%. However, it highlighted that this revision largely reflects the dampening effect…
Highlights Evergrande is just a canary in the coalmine warning of the vulnerability of global real estate, which is now trading on its highest valuation ever. US house prices are now more extended versus rents than at the peak of the…
As expected, the FOMC did not make any changes to its policy rate or pace of asset purchases at its meeting on Wednesday. However, the Fed sent a strong signal that tapering is on the horizon. The statement indicated that “if…