The performance of global risk assets improved somewhat on Tuesday following Monday’s tumble on the back of concerns about the potential implications of an Evergrande default. Nevertheless, risks remain elevated. A key…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service expects corporate bonds to outperform Treasuries during the next 6-12 month. However, both excess returns and total returns will take a step down. Two broad factors must be considered…
Highlights Investment Grade: Investment grade corporate bond total returns will be close to zero or negative during the next 12 months. The bonds are also likely to outperform duration-matched Treasuries during that period, but excess…
The possibility of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande’s collapse threatens the stability of the country’s economy and financial markets through multiple facets. The company accounts for an outsized share of outstanding…
Highlights Global growth is peaking, but US growth is losing momentum relative to its peers. This has historically been negative for the greenback. Chinese monetary policy is no longer on a tightening path, and might ease going…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service expects Evergrande’s partial default to reinforce credit tightening in China. Evergrande will likely default on some of its liabilities but there will be a bailout or roll-…
Several key financial assets are failing to send a strong signal and instead have been in a state of stasis. Abstracting from day-to-day moves, Treasury yields, the LMEX, and EUR/USD have not been on a clear trajectory since the…
Please note that next Friday September 24 at 10am EDT, we will host a webcast featuring a debate between my colleague Peter Berezin and me. The topic of debate is whether investors should overweight EM in a global portfolio. Please join…
Highlights Since June, 6 structured recommendations achieved their profit targets: short building and construction (XLB) versus healthcare (XLV); long USD/CAD; long USD/HUF; long Nike versus L’Oréal; short corn versus…
Inflationary pressures are likely to keep the Bank of Canada at least as hawkish - if not more hawkish - than the Fed. Headline CPI accelerated to a 18-year high of 4.1% y/y in August. The diffusion index's extremely…