Our Global Fixed Income strategists recommend maintaining an underweight allocation to corporate credit versus government bonds in global fixed income portfolios. Within corporates, they are neutral on the US, UK, Japan, and…
Markets are responding to the growth drag of stagflation, not the inflation impulse, reinforcing our defensive stance. Despite rising short-term inflation pressures in the US, risk assets and bond yields continue to move together,…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position…
This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Macro momentum is deteriorating rapidly, and we remain defensively positioned as risks build. Business and consumer confidence have fallen sharply, and while the US post-election period began with optimism, policy uncertainty has…
There is an ongoing regime shift in Indonesia: SOEs will be used to drive economic growth. Bank loans will accelerate, but their profit margins will shrink. Despite higher nominal growth, Indonesian equity prices in US dollar terms…
An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation.
Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit…
Brazilian policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no combination of fiscal and monetary policies that can assure decent growth, on-target inflation, a stable exchange rate, and public debt sustainability. We…