Highlights Fed: The Fed will be forced to clarify its definition of “maximum employment” in 2022, and the path of inflation will ultimately dictate how far the Fed tries to push the labor market. We expect Fed rate hikes to…
The share of market capitalization of equities within portfolios is elevated by historical standards. The threat now is that this elevated level could trigger a rebalancing of flows away from equities in favor of bonds,…
9 September 2021 at 10:00 EDT Emerging Markets Strategy/Webcast EM/China: See The Forest For The Trees 9 September 2021 at 21:00 EDT Emerging Markets Strategy/Webcast Emerging Asia: See The Forest For The Trees Highlights…
Highlights The equity risk premium has turned negative for the first time since 2002. It follows that any significant rise in bond yields will cause risk-asset prices to collapse, quickly flipping any incipient inflationary shock into…
Highlights Chart 1Employment Growth Will Rebound August’s weak employment growth reflects the surge of Delta variant COVID cases in the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that Leisure & Hospitality sector…
Highlights A trio of ECB hawks raised the prospect of an ECB taper. In the past, the current set of economic conditions in the Euro Area would have prompted the ECB to tighten policy. A potential economic deceleration this fall, the…
Highlights Jackson Hole: The message from Jackson Hole is that the majority of the FOMC – including Fed Chair Powell - is ready to begin tapering asset purchases before year-end. There is less unanimity within the FOMC over the…
Highlights We are reviewing our recommendations. We are also introducing recommendation tables to monitor these positions. Overall, our main recommendations have generated alpha and have a positive batting average. Feature The end…
The key decision for asset allocators is always at the asset-class level: Whether equities will outperform bonds or vice versa. Despite the decline in government bond yields since March, the stock/bond ratio - defined most…