Our Global Fixed Income team’s Duration Indicator suggests that slowing growth momentum will continue weighing down on government bond yields. However, major economies are likely to continue growing at an above-trend pace and…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that overall the outlook for the EM GBI bond index’s total return in USD is bleak. Emerging markets can be separated into four groups: 1. The economies where…
Our colleagues at BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service observe that since 2008, a remarkable financial relationship has held true. The 10-year T-bond yield has struggled to exceed the earnings yield on technology…
Highlights Since 2008, the 10-year T-bond yield has struggled to exceed the earnings yield on technology stocks minus a constant of 2.5 percent. Based on the current technology earnings yield of 3.8 percent, and the 10-year T-bond…
Highlights US Treasuries: US Treasury yields are rising once again, in response to typical drivers – less dovish Fed commentary and upside growth surprises. The spread of the Delta variant in the US represents a potential near-…
Highlights Fed: The Fed is preparing markets for a taper announcement in Q4 of this year. But we don’t see asset purchase tapering as a catalyst for higher bond yields. Rather, bond yields will move higher as the employment data…
BCA Research’s Treasury Composite Technical Indicator suggests that the rally in US Treasurys is losing steam. Earlier this year, the indicator signaled that the bond selloff had gotten ahead of itself. Indeed, oversold market…
Highlights Investors have grown enamored with online retailers (AMZN), payment processing companies (V, MA, PYPL, SQ), and social media companies (FB, SNAP). All three sectors are likely to experience headwinds over the next 12 months…
Highlights Advances in tennis, swimming and the high jump came from challenging the ‘best practices’, and finding better ways of doing these things. The pandemic has challenged the best practices on how we should work, do…
As expected, the US bond rally has coincided with the outperformance of both defensive equity sectors relative to cyclical ones, and growth stocks versus value. However, among growth-sensitive assets, two relationships stand…