According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investors should position in yield curve flatteners on a 6-12 month horizon. The Treasury curve bull-flattened in July. Bond yields were down across the curve, but by much…
Highlights Chart 1Still Close To Fair Value Treasury yields fell significantly in July, particularly at the long end of the curve. We continue to view this move as an overreaction to mediocre economic data that will be reversed…
Highlights The countertrend yield rally is near its end. Despite the deteriorating Chinese credit impulse, the outlook for global growth remains robust. An ample global liquidity backdrop, an inventory restocking cycle, and an upbeat…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that dedicated Asian/EM fixed-income investors should continue to overweight Malaysia in both EM local currency and sovereign bond portfolios. First, statutory…
Highlights Recent progress on the path to a post-pandemic state and the return to pre-COVID economic conditions has been mixed. The share of vaccinated individuals continues to rise globally, and the number of confirmed UK cases has…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service argues that the Chinese bond market is vulnerable to a near-term reassessment of policy and growth. The RRR cut exacerbated China’s nascent bond market rally as…
On Tuesday, the US 10-year TIPS yield closed at minus 1.13 – its lowest level in the history of the series which dates back to 1997. Taken at face value, a depressed real yield implies that investors are increasingly…
Highlights China’s broad equity market performance since the PBoC cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is consistent with our view. While the central bank’s policy tone remains dovish, a single reduction in the RRR rate…
Highlights Portfolio Duration: The decline in US bond yields is overdone. We anticipate that strong US employment data will catalyze a jump in bond yields this fall and that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach a range of 2% - 2.25…
The recent sharp rally in the US government bond market was short-lived. US Treasuries already lost all of their gains from early last week. This raises the question: Have Treasury yields troughed? The 10-year Treasury yield…