Highlights Economy – The inevitable deceleration has arrived, but the economy is still growing far faster than trend and will continue to do so through 2022: A wide range of data series shows that US growth has likely peaked but…
Last Monday’s violent bond rally pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 1.19% – the lowest level since February. However, since then, bonds have been selling off and yields ultimately ended the week higher than they started it…
Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. In lieu of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Arthur Budaghyan, BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets Strategist. Arthur’s…
Highlights The decline in US Treasury yields has once again reduced the appeal of US paper, relative to foreign developed and emerging market bonds. Historically, lower US bond yields relative to other markets has been dollar bearish…
Highlights US Treasuries: Peaking global growth expectations and the growing spread of the Delta variant are challenging the “reflation and reopening” narrative that drove bond yields higher in Q1 of this year. Underlying…
The credit risk premium in US bonds has shrunk considerably during the past 16 months. While BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service doesn’t foresee a period of significant spread widening any time soon, lower spreads…
After rising to levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% core PCE target in May and June, the 5-year/5-year forward TIPS breakeven inflation rate has continued to decline, falling further below the Fed’s target zone. On…
Highlights Spread Product: The credit risk premium has shrunk considerably during the past 16 months. While we don’t foresee a period of significant spread widening any time soon, lower spreads mean lower excess corporate bond…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service concludes that the forces pushing down bond yields will abate, with the US 10-year Treasury yield ultimately rising to 1.8%-to-1.9% by the end of the year. Three major…