Highlights Yield curves have flattened considerably in the major economies since April. Slowing global growth, the perception that the Fed is turning more hawkish, and technical factors have contributed to flatter yield curves.…
Highlights Global Yields: Falling global bond yields, led by US Treasuries, are an oversized response to some modest cooling of growth momentum. Global growth will remain above-trend over the next year, which will keep global inflation…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service expects the 10-year Treasury yield to reach a range of 2% - 2.25% by the end of next year when the Fed is ready to lift rates. The team presents three reasons why the recent drop…
Highlights Duration: The recent decline in Treasury yields is overdone. Economic growth is no longer accelerating, but it hasn’t slowed enough to justify the strength in bonds. Stronger employment data will pressure bond yields…
Feature Since the end of the first quarter, the decline in Treasury yields has been the most important trend in global financial markets. It has contributed to the return of the outperformance of growth stocks relative to value stocks,…
As economies started to reopen, and long-term bond yields began to rise, global Value stocks outperformed global Growth stocks by almost 20% from November to May. However, over the past couple of months this trend has reversed…
The spectacular outperformance of global equities versus bonds since the pandemic trough has been accompanied by declining volatility in all asset classes globally. But investors are now close to fully invested in US equities.…
Highlights Our sense remains that the dollar is undergoing a countertrend bounce, rather than entering a new bull market. The litmus test for this view is if the DXY fails to break above the 93-94 level that marked the March highs.…
In their Q2/2021 model bond portfolio performance review, BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy team updated their recommended positioning for the next six months. Firstly, the team changed its US Treasury curve…