The China State Council meeting on July 7, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, sent a somewhat ambiguous message on the direction of China’s monetary policy. The press release from the meeting stated that the country will…
The growth acceleration narrative that drove much of the performance of global financial markets in 2021 is showing signs of fraying, led by US bond yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to drift lower, hitting an…
Highlights Inflation is set to decelerate, job creation has a speed limit, and super-spreaders of new-variant Covid-19 infections will create speed bumps in the economy. This means that in the second half of the year: Bonds…
GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/2021 Performance Review & Current Allocations: Hitting A Few Roadblocks
Highlights Q2/2021 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark index by -6bps during the second quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…
Highlights Chart 1Employment Growth June’s employment report revealed that 850 thousand jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls during the month. This is well above the 416k to 505k threshold that is required to hit the…
Real yields on the junk coupon in the US have turned negative. The junk bond market has always provided a corridor of comfort for investors that want a higher return (relatively equitable to equities), but less risk (since junk…
Highlights The US dollar will reach its ultimate high in the next deflationary shock. The swing factor for dollar demand is portfolio flows. In the next shock, portfolio flows will surge into US investments, driving up the US dollar to…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on…
Dear Client, China Investment Strategy will take a summer break next week. We will resume our publication on July 14th. Best regards and we wish you a happy and healthy summer. Jing Sima, China Strategist Highlights A USD…