Highlights Duration: The Fed will ignore inflation for the time being and focus on its “maximum employment” target to decide when to lift rates off the zero bound. As a result, bond investors should also ignore inflation…
Highlights The ECB did not tighten policy, despite its upgrade to the Euro Area growth outlook. The rise in the Eurozone inflation will be transitory. The Euro Area continues to suffer from excessive slack, and current price…
Where should you invest your money for the long term? This is a question that many investors struggle to answer in today’s environment. Low interest rates have made valuations unattractive in almost all traditional asset…
Highlights As commodity inflation subsides, so will broader inflation. As broader inflation subsides, so will inflation expectations – because inflation expectations just follow realised inflation. Overweight US T-bonds versus…
Highlights Bond Market Performance: Government bonds in the developed economies are currently trapped in ranges, consolidating the sharp upward moves seen in the first quarter of 2021. This is only a pause in the broader cyclical…
Highlights Chart 1Tracking Nonfarm Payrolls With 12-month PCE inflation already above the Fed’s 2% target, it is progress toward the Fed’s “maximum employment” goal that will determine both the timing…
The 81-basis point increase in yields in Q1 pushed US 10-year Treasurys deep into oversold territory. This triggered a rally that brought yields down to 1.56% by mid-April. US government bonds have been in stasis since then, with…
Friday’s US employment report was another miss. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 559 thousand in May, below the anticipated 675 thousand. Moreover, the labor force participation rate ticked down to 61.6% from 61.7%.…
European bond markets have calmed down after a rough couple of months that saw the benchmark 10-year German bund yield rise from a low of -0.39% on March 25 to a high of -0.11% on May 19. Yields on riskier European debt saw even…
On Friday 4th June, I will be debating my colleague Peter Berezin on the future of cryptocurrencies. I believe that the cryptocurrency asset-class has substantial further price upside, whereas Peter thinks that it is going to zero. So…